stock here. Robins return every year and make a nest on a light just above where my German
Shepherd hangs out with and overview from deck of 70% of the homestead.
They know that no predators are going to be coming!
I betcha these little guys do their flight training within a week.
25 States up to May 21st, Charted and Modeled.
click for a larger clearer picture
I charted a bunch of states yesterday, and have requests for 11 more, LOL 11 is my number.
As always blogger sucks, but click for a large clear image, easy to read the dates.
But look at Massachusetts, and especially the weird 7 day moving average. 10 States participating in the Apr 29 Spikefest. It was planned at least a week in advance and coordinated. All by phone call? Must almost for sure be a group phone call, unless one party is creating the plan and then just distributing “orders”. Maybe they did it on Zoom.
This looks treasonous to me, what could their excuse possible be? “Oh, we did it in an over abundance of caution, we figured it was better for people to be scared than dead.”
New Hampshire, Very few deaths
New Hampshire — Toughest model I have ever done. Data all over the board. I had to model based on the 7 day MA In Red, Model in Orange. Look at the tabular data, they have to under report, and borrow deaths from the future to show the scary spikes.
Florida, Gov Santos opened up very early.
I have been catching up on my real life, and had to put the charts aside for awhile.
Taking requests….what States do you want to see with the “presented deaths” and the model.
CLICK ON ALL CHARTS FOR A MUCH BETTER VIEW!
For about 10 states I have the models that were done around 4-26-20, almost a month ago. They represent how a real virus would present data based upon a “declining exponent model”.
This can change, I’ll present my entire Pandemic Model theory someday, but let’s sum it up quick. There is a Measure called R-Naught, R sub 0, or looks like this, but a real pain to type
It says how well the virus can jump from one human to another, how many other humans are likely to get the virus from one infected human.
For each virus there is an inherent R-naught, it the nature of the beast when presented to a totally unaware, never seen this virus before, population. Now my science and modeling is based upon what I call the R-naught effective. How well does the virus jump, how many other humans will one human infect given other variables, and in the models using data, it really doesn’t matter what the other factors are. The numbers speak for themselves and create the R-naught-effective
Washington State, horrific citizen abuse
Michigan! Wretched Gretchen
Georgia on my Mind! Good for them… bolstering herd immunity with a good infection rate and declining deaths…… and prospering economy.